Technical analysis

Bear market

A sustained decline in a specified instrument and horizon under a stated criterion. In EUR/USD, a falling rate describes euro weakness relative to the dollar; the inverse quotation rises. There is no universal FX percentage threshold. The label does not establish the cause, mandate short selling or guarantee continuation.
Example. EUR/USD falls from 1.1200 to 1.0800 over the selected interval, approximately 3.57%. That describes euro weakness against the dollar in this quotation. The inverse USD/EUR rises from approximately 0.8929 to 0.9259. A bearish label belongs to the instrument and stated horizon, not every currency or timeframe simultaneously.

Relative quotation

A currency pair compares two currencies. A falling rate means the base buys fewer quote-currency units; the opposite quotation rises. An equity-market percentage convention does not impose a universal FX bear-market threshold. State whether the label refers to a sustained chart structure, measured return or another criterion rather than import a definition silently.

Timeframe and evidence

A higher-timeframe decline can contain shorter advances. Lower highs and lows are one way to identify direction, but swing selection and confirmation timing matter. An unfinished swing can change. Neither selling pressure nor a macroeconomic explanation can be inferred completely from the label alone; distinguish the observed rate from the proposed cause.

Strategy is a separate decision

Selling rallies is one possible bearish strategy, not a requirement for every trader. Staying flat, hedging a real exposure or using another evaluated rule may be appropriate to a plan. Directional classification does not supply entry, stop, size or positive expectancy. Test costs and reversal scenarios rather than assume a bearish environment makes shorts certain winners.

FAQ

Is a falling pair bearish for both currencies?
No. It describes the base weakening relative to the quote under that quotation.
Must a forex bear market fall by 20%?
No universal FX threshold follows from that equity-market convention.

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Jarosław Wasiński

Editor-in-chief, ForexMechanics.com • Macro & FX analyst

Independent analyst and practitioner with over 20 years of experience in financial markets. Actively involved in Forex since 2007, with a focus on fundamental analysis, OTC market structure, and disciplined capital risk management.

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