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Fundamental analysis

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

By Jarosław Wasiński • Published: • Updated:
US nonfarm payroll employment, commonly discussed as the monthly change published in the BLS Employment Situation release. The establishment survey counts payroll jobs, not unique employed people; a person with jobs at two establishments can be counted twice. Unemployment is measured by a separate household survey. Revisions and expectations affect interpretation.
Example. A hypothetical release reports +150,000 payroll jobs versus a +100,000 forecast, while previous months are revised down by 80,000. The headline surprise alone does not describe the whole release or guarantee a stronger USD.

What is being counted

The payroll survey covers nonfarm establishments, including covered nonprofit employment; it does not exclude nonprofit employers as a class. The household and establishment surveys have different concepts and samples. See the BLS technical notes.

Calendar and revisions

Use the BLS release calendar rather than assume every first Friday or a fixed UTC time. A release scheduled at 08:30 Eastern corresponds to different UTC times under US daylight saving. Initial estimates can be revised and benchmarked.

Execution around a release

Quotes and available liquidity can change quickly. Ordinary stop orders may slip and an initial move may reverse. No universal number of seconds to wait, jobs threshold or historical surprise frequency guarantees a successful trade.

FAQ

Do payroll jobs count unique people?

No. The establishment survey counts jobs; someone working at two covered establishments can be counted twice.

Does the unemployment rate come from the same survey?

No. The US release includes a separate household survey using different concepts and methodology.

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Jarosław Wasiński

Editor-in-chief, ForexMechanics.com • Macro & FX analyst

Independent analyst and practitioner with over 20 years of experience in financial markets. Actively involved in Forex since 2007, with a focus on fundamental analysis, OTC market structure, and disciplined capital risk management.

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