Macroeconomic cheat sheet — releases and times
Five tables to keep beside your monitor: what is released, when it comes out in Europe/Warsaw time, its indicative importance, and which report details can change currency valuations. This is the operational summary of article 4.5 on the economic calendar — that article covers the reaction mechanism and strategies; this page is the reference sheet: usual release times, Tier 1/Tier 2 ratings, US–European daylight-saving mismatch windows and notes on revisions. The overriding rule remains the one enforced by the pre-market checklist: check the calendar BEFORE the session, and apply your plan's no-new-entry window around Tier 1 releases.
- Three releases are usually among the strongest drivers of the dollar: US CPI, NFP and FOMC decisions (usual Europe/Warsaw times: CPI/NFP 14:30, FOMC 20:00; one hour earlier during DST mismatch windows), while the ECB decision is in the same league for euro pairs. The hierarchy is not fixed — a second-tier release can become the day's main event when it concerns the issue the market is currently pricing
- The market trades the deviation from consensus, not the reading alone — “good” data that fall short of expectations can weaken a currency if they change the expected path of interest rates; revisions to earlier readings also matter and can carry more weight than the headline
- Times on this sheet are usual release times in Europe/Warsaw (CET/CEST): US releases move by one hour during DST mismatch windows (in 2026: 8–28 March and 25–31 October); European and UK releases do not
- The initial move after a release occurs in poorer liquidity — it may persist, reverse or turn into consolidation; even after analysing the full report, the direction may remain unclear, and execution conditions often deteriorate sharply
How to read an economic release — 60 seconds of theory
- Consensus is the baseline. The market prices expectations BEFORE a release, so the reaction depends on how the reading differs from consensus — and on market positioning. A reading that is “better than last time, worse than consensus” is a downside surprise.
- The headline is not the whole report. NFP includes revisions to the previous two months, hourly earnings and the participation rate; CPI includes the monthly core reading; a central bank decision comes with a statement and a press conference. The second move — after the details are read — can run counter to the first.
- A possible reaction sequence — not a forecast: a spike within seconds, a partial retracement, then further repricing of the report. A retracement of 30–60% of the initial move, including 30–50%, merely illustrates the scale of a pullback: without a defined sample and measurement method, it is neither an NFP statistic nor an entry signal. There may equally be no retracement at all, or the move may reverse completely. Price can go either way after a release; execution conditions may deteriorate: the spread can widen for seconds or longer, and slippage can increase — which is why the example plan prohibits new entries within a ±30-minute window (question 1 of the pre-market checklist). This is a trading process rule, not a guarantee that liquidity will recover after 30 minutes; adapt the window to the instrument and verified execution conditions.
- This sheet gives usual release times. You still check the coming week's calendar against the source on Sunday evening — prompt P2 in the AI workshop organises copied rows and flags missing information, but you confirm times and dates solely against the source; the model must not fill them in from guesswork.
Table 1: US releases
Rows marked with ↻ move one hour earlier during daylight-saving mismatch windows (see below). The impact described is for EUR/USD; reactions in USD/PLN can be stronger, and spreads can take longer to normalise. For a trader combining trading with a 09:00–17:00 job in the reference time zone, the schedule is only partly convenient: 14:30 releases fall during work (hence the position-management plan and checklist in toolkit J; a pending order can also execute with slippage), whereas the 20:00 FOMC release comes afterwards. Tier ratings are defaults from the perspective of major USD and EUR pairs — for pairs containing a central bank's currency, treat that bank's decision as Tier 1 (the convention in 4.5). Canadian or Australian employment reports may have the highest priority for CAD or AUD despite a Tier 2 label; the filter does not replace selecting events for your own pair.
Source time zones: US: data at 08:30 or ISM at 10:00 ET (America/New_York); Canada: 08:30 ET (America/Toronto). ET includes EST and EDT. The tables use Europe/Warsaw (CET/CEST); confirm dates and exceptions in the institutions' schedules. Central banks may also take unscheduled emergency decisions.
On a small screen, scroll the table horizontally. Keyboard: focus the table with Tab, then use the arrow keys.
| Release | When | Time (Europe/Warsaw) | Tier | What the market watches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) | date set by the annual BLS schedule (usually the first Friday of the month — but not always) | 14:30 ↻ | TIER 1 | headline versus consensus, revisions to the previous two months, monthly hourly earnings, unemployment and participation rates |
| CPI — consumer price inflation | around the middle of the month | 14:30 ↻ | TIER 1 | headline and core, month-on-month and year-on-year, services and shelter; compare the same series and precision with consensus, and label extra decimal places calculated from the indices as your own calculation |
| PCE / Core PCE (BEA) — headline and core inflation | end of the month | 14:30 ↻ | TIER 1 | core and headline, month-on-month and year-on-year, and revisions; the Fed's 2% target refers to headline PCE. Core helps assess the trend; some information comes from CPI/PPI, but the size of the reaction is not predetermined |
| Retail sales | around the middle of the month | 14:30 ↻ | TIER 2 | the control group (excluding motor vehicles, fuel, building materials and food services), headline and revisions — the data help estimate part of consumption in GDP, not its entire contribution |
| GDP (advance estimate) | end of the month following the quarter | 14:30 ↻ | TIER 2 | annualised quarter-on-quarter growth, consumption, inventories and the deflator; later estimates (second, third) can change the assessment through revisions to the composition as well as the headline |
| ISM Manufacturing | first business day of the month | 16:00 ↻ | TIER 2 | the 50-point threshold, new orders and employment sub-indices; employment in the survey is not a forecast of the NFP payroll count |
| ISM Services | third business day of the month | 16:00 ↻ | TIER 2 | services account for most of the US economy; the prices-paid sub-index as an inflation signal |
| Jobless claims | usually Thursday; exceptions in the DOL calendar | 14:30 ↻ | TIER 2 | initial and continuing claims, the four-week average and revisions; the weekly picture of layoffs does not translate directly into NFP |
The ↻ symbol means a release is one hour earlier during DST mismatch windows (see below). A move of several dozen pips in EUR/USD in the first few minutes is a possible scenario, not an expected range or a stop-setting threshold (mechanism and exceptions: 4.5).
Table 2: euro area and Germany
| Release | When | Time (Europe/Warsaw) | Tier | What the market watches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECB decision + press conference | 8× a year, Thursday | 14:15 / press conference 14:45 | TIER 1 | the decision relative to expectations, statement and press conference — the surprise may concern current rates or the path of subsequent decisions |
| Flash HICP — euro area inflation | end of the month or start of the next; Eurostat calendar | 11:00 | TIER 1 | headline and core year-on-year rates, services; national releases (e.g. Germany, Spain) may change expectations earlier, but do not necessarily appear exactly one day before the aggregate |
| PMI flash (manufacturing and services) | around the 23rd of the month | Germany 09:30, euro area 10:00 | TIER 2 | the 50-point threshold, new orders and prices; flash is an early signal, but the final reading can also surprise. Check dates for both versions with S&P Global |
| Ifo — German business climate | towards the end of the month; Ifo calendar | 10:30 | TIER 2 | expectations and current assessment; Germany's importance to the euro area does not guarantee a stronger reaction than data from other countries — consider the deviation from consensus and the issue the market is pricing |
| ZEW — analyst sentiment | monthly, on Tuesday according to the ZEW calendar | 11:05 | TIER 2 | financial market experts' expectations for the next six months and assessment of the current situation; a sentiment survey, not an output reading |
| Euro area GDP (flash) | around 30 days after the quarter | 11:00 | TIER 2 | quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year growth, deviation from consensus and later revisions; PMI provides context but does not replace GDP measurement |
Eurostat, the ECB, Ifo and ZEW use CET/CEST (e.g. Europe/Berlin), matching Europe/Warsaw; S&P Global gives its calendar in UTC, so conversion must use the specific date.
Table 3: other G10 economies
| Release | When | Time (Europe/Warsaw) | Tier | What the market watches / pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of England decision | 8× a year, Thursday | 13:00 | TIER 1 | the MPC vote split is published with the decision; GBP/USD, EUR/GBP |
| UK CPI | around the middle of the month, Wednesday | 08:00 | TIER 1 | headline, core and services year-on-year rates; ONS publishes at 07:00 Europe/London, or 08:00 in Europe/Warsaw; assess the surprise and liquidity |
| Bank of Japan decision | 8× a year | overnight/morning, after the meeting ends; no fixed time or guaranteed window | TIER 1 | the lack of a fixed announcement time increases uncertainty; USD/JPY, EUR/JPY — overnight positions need a plan |
| SNB decision | quarterly, Thursday | 09:30 | TIER 1 | for CHF pairs (USD/CHF, EUR/CHF), every meeting is Tier 1; the SNB can also act between meetings without notice — the extreme scenario is covered in toolkit K |
| Canadian employment | Friday, according to Statistics Canada's separate calendar | 14:30 ↻ | TIER 2 | employment change, unemployment and wages; when it coincides with NFP, USD/CAD prices two reports at once, making interpretation harder and potentially widening the spread |
| Australian employment | Thursday according to the ABS calendar; the date may fall after the middle of the month | 11:30 Canberra time (Australia/Sydney, AEST/AEDT): about 01:30 in the Polish winter / 03:30 in summer (about 02:30 during transition weeks) | TIER 2 | AUD/USD; Canberra changes clocks in the opposite direction to Europe (Australian summer = European winter) — always confirm the time in the calendar |
The ↻ symbol means a shift during DST mismatch windows. Japan does not change its clocks, so its release times in Europe/Warsaw shift with POLAND'S clock change. Australia's full two-hour swing comes from TWO clock changes — Poland's and Australia's, in opposite directions; during weeks when only one side has changed, the intermediate time applies.
Table 4: Poland — Statistics Poland and the Monetary Policy Council
| Release | When | Time (Europe/Warsaw) | Tier | What the market watches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polish Monetary Policy Council (RPP) decision | dates solely from the NBP schedule (usually early in the month; the January meeting is later) — the schedule may be revised during the year | afternoon announcement, with no fixed time | TIER 1 | EUR/PLN and USD/PLN; no fixed announcement time means you should not leave tight stops in place “just for a moment” |
| NBP governor's press conference | usually the day after the decision; confirm the NBP announcement | usually 15:00; use the announced time | TIER 1 | the tone can move the zloty more than the decision itself — the reaction unfolds throughout the press conference |
| Flash CPI inflation (Statistics Poland/GUS) | end of the month | 09:30 | TIER 2 | a flash estimate without the full breakdown; full data around the middle of the following month |
| Full CPI + core inflation (GUS/NBP) | around the middle of the month | GUS 09:30; NBP core inflation at 14:00 on a separate date in the NBP calendar | TIER 2 | the CPI breakdown and core excluding food and energy as context for the RPP; a headline matching the flash estimate does not rule out a surprise in the details |
| Industry, wages, retail sales (GUS) | around the 20th of the month (a series of releases) | 09:30 | TIER 2 | a sequence of readings on separate dates; assess the package and revisions, although a single large signal can also affect the zloty |
Since 18 March 2026, Statistics Poland (GUS) has published its statistical news releases at 09:30 (previously 10:00) — older cheat sheets and notes show an outdated time. RPP meeting dates and GUS releases are announced in advance in official schedules, but can be revised during the year — confirm the RPP date in the week of the meeting.
Table 5: central banks — meetings and press conferences
| Bank | Meeting frequency | Decision (Europe/Warsaw) | Press conference | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed (FOMC) | 8× a year, Tuesday–Wednesday | 20:00 ↻ | 20:30 ↻ | projections and the dot plot 4× a year (March, June, September, December) — extra information can change pricing but does not guarantee the largest reaction |
| ECB | 8× a year, Thursday | 14:15 | 14:45 | quarterly projections, the rate path and balance sheet; the impact of each topic depends on the surprise relative to expectations |
| Bank of England | 8× a year, Thursday | 13:00 | after the decision (meetings with a report) | the vote split is known immediately — surprises in voting proportions can change expectations for subsequent decisions |
| Bank of Japan | 8× a year | overnight/morning, no fixed time | usually around 07:30 in the Polish winter / 08:30 in summer — confirm on the meeting day | Japan does not change its clocks, so Europe/Warsaw times shift with Poland's clock change; Japanese statements come with a translation — algorithms trade news-agency headlines faster than you can read them |
| SNB | quarterly, Thursday | 09:30 | 10:00 | a quarterly cycle means only four scheduled policy updates per year; for CHF pairs, treat every meeting as a Tier 1 event with heightened execution risk |
| NBP (Polish RPP) | dates from the NBP schedule (which may be revised during the year) | on the meeting day, in the afternoon, with no fixed time | usually the following day, often 15:00; confirm the NBP announcement | Tier 1 for zloty pairs; the press conference can matter more than the statement |
Fed: decision at 14:00 and press conference at 14:30 ET = usually 20:00/20:30 in Europe/Warsaw; ↻ means 19:00/19:30 during DST mismatch windows. BoE: 12:00 Europe/London = 13:00 in Europe/Warsaw. BoJ: press conference usually at 15:30 Asia/Tokyo = 07:30 in the Polish winter / 08:30 in summer. The ECB and SNB use CET/CEST. Confirm the announcement for the specific meeting.
DST mismatch windows and a typical month
The United States and Europe change their clocks on different dates. During two windows each year, US releases occur one hour earlier in Europe/Warsaw time: in 2026, these are 8–28 March and 25–31 October (the window ends on the day before the Sunday clock change — dates are calculated from the calendar rule, not re-entered every year). NFP moves from 14:30 to 13:30, and FOMC from 20:00 to 19:00. The banner above Table 1 checks the date in Poland and converts US/Canadian release times for that day; it does not mean that a report is due today. The rule assumes that the current clock-change rules remain in place; the same mechanism is available in toolkit J.
| Region | Clock change | Effect on the times in this sheet |
|---|---|---|
| US and Canada | second Sunday in March / first Sunday in November | during mismatch windows, releases occur one hour EARLIER (↻) |
| Euro area and UK | together with Poland (last Sundays in March and October) | release times stay the same throughout the year |
| Japan | no clock changes | Europe/Warsaw times shift with POLAND'S clock change: BoJ press conference usually 07:30 in winter / 08:30 in summer |
| Australia — Canberra | AEST/AEDT; first Sunday in April and October, in the opposite direction to Europe | employment at about 01:30 in the Polish winter / 03:30 in summer (about 02:30 during transition weeks) |
Macro cheat sheet v1.4 · data and times checked: 10 September 2026 (DST mismatch windows calculated automatically for the current year: 2026 — 8–28 March and 25–31 October) · all table times: Europe/Warsaw (CET/CEST); ↻ = one hour earlier during mismatch windows · Tier ratings default to USD/EUR pairs — treat the decision of the central bank for a currency in your pair as Tier 1; this is a checking priority, not a forecast of the move · GUS since 18 March 2026: statistical news releases at 09:30 · trading results bear spread, commission, swap and slippage costs (especially spread and slippage around releases) · verify the calendar before each trading week · educational material, not investment advice · forexmechanics.com/macro-cheat-sheet/
Below is the outline of a typical month — so that you know what to look for before opening the calendar.
FAQ
Why do the times in my economic calendar sometimes differ from this sheet?
There are three common reasons. First: DST mismatch windows — for a few weeks each year, US releases occur one hour earlier in Europe/Warsaw time (in 2026: 8–28 March and 25–31 October). Second: the calendar's time-zone setting differs — check that it uses Europe/Warsaw if you want to compare it directly with this sheet; a calendar set to your own time zone needs the corresponding conversion. Third: one-off changes (US holidays or changes to institutions' schedules). That is why this sheet gives usual release times, while your weekly plan uses the calendar checked on Sunday — preferably with prompt P2 from toolkit H, which flags questionable rows instead of converting them.
Should you trade economic releases at all?
Trading the release itself (news trading) is a separate discipline with its own requirements: verified execution, acceptance of slippage and a position plan; trading the first impulse means competing with automated systems operating in milliseconds. For the trader following this course, the default answer is no — the ±30-minute window around Tier 1 is an example plan rule prohibiting new entries, not a universal time for liquidity to recover. The calendar's value lies in knowing WHEN not to trade and when execution conditions deteriorate. Understanding a possible reaction sequence helps you manage an open position before the release in line with your written plan: reduce it, close it or leave it with the original stop-loss — do not widen the stop on the fly simply because data are approaching.
Where should consensus forecasts and schedules come from?
Economic calendars in platforms and financial services aggregate consensus forecasts — check the time zone, forecast source and update time. Consensus depends on the survey panel, so providers may show different figures; record the provider and expectations before the release. Source schedules come from the institutions themselves: US statistical agencies announce dates for the whole year in advance, as do the Fed, ECB, Bank of England and NBP (RPP meetings). Statistics Poland (GUS) has its own calendar. Direct links are listed in the sources below. This sheet deliberately does not link to commercial calendars — the toolkit section does not endorse providers; choosing a tool is your decision, and the criteria are in article 4.5.
Which matters more: the reading or the revision to the previous one?
Read both together — without assuming an order in which the market prices them. The first reaction may reflect the headline, revisions, wages and unemployment simultaneously (information systems receive the whole report at once); later moves reflect changes in liquidity and positioning as well as further reading of the data. Monthly NFP estimates undergo two subsequent revisions, plus annual benchmark revisions and seasonal updates. A change of several tens of thousands affects the assessment of the trend and employment level. In practice: read the headline TOGETHER with the sum of revisions to the previous two months (calendars show them alongside the reading) — a +180,000 report with −90,000 in revisions is weaker than the headline suggests, although that determines neither the direction nor the sequence of price moves.
Related course material
- 4.5 Economic calendar — the reaction mechanism, spike–retracement–drift phases and strategies around releases summarised in this sheet
- Section 6: fundamental analysis — why interest rates and the labour market affect currency valuations
- Toolkit J — trader checklists — the pre-market calendar question and automatically calculated DST mismatch banner
- Toolkit H, prompt P2 — paste the week's calendar and receive a plan with no-entry windows
- Toolkit B — currency pair profiles — which releases move which pair, and when each pair is active
Sources
- Data schedules (checked: 10 September 2026): US — BLS: NFP and CPI, BEA: GDP and PCE, Census: retail sales, ISM: PMI, DOL: jobless claims. Europe — Eurostat: HICP and GDP, S&P Global: PMI, Ifo: index and release date, ZEW: dates and the 11:05 release time in 2026, ONS: CPI. Other economies — Statistics Canada: 2026 schedule, ABS: labour market, Statistics Poland (GUS): calendar and the 09:30 statistical release time, NBP: core inflation and events. Dates can change — check the current calendar on the release day as well.
- Central banks: Fed: FOMC and SEP projections, Fed: event times, Fed: the inflation target and headline PCE, ECB: decisions at 14:15 and press conferences at 14:45, Bank of England: MPC, Bank of Japan: meetings, SNB: events, NBP: RPP and press conferences. The calendar cannot list all emergency actions in advance.
- Internal references: 4.5 Economic calendar (reaction mechanism, spreads and slippage; not used here as evidence of the frequency or size of retracements) and section 4 on trading hours. Clock changes in 2026: NIST: US DST dates and rules. Europe/Warsaw, America/New_York, America/Toronto, Europe/London, Asia/Tokyo and Australia/Sydney are time zones with seasonal rules, not fixed UTC offsets.
Read a release without mixing its comparisons
Use the sheet above to locate the relevant source, then keep the release, expectations and previous observation in separate fields. This new case is entirely hypothetical; none of its numbers or times describes an actual publication.
Freeze the expectation before the release
A fictional annual inflation reading is published at 13:00 UTC. Its actual value is 2.7%, the consensus recorded at 12:59 UTC is 2.6%, and the comparable previous annual reading is 2.8%. All three refer to the same stated measure and use percentage units. Assume no revision or definitional change in this small case. Record the provider and capture time of consensus; a number first obtained after publication is not evidence of the expectation held beforehand.
Name the base of each difference
The actual reading exceeds the saved consensus by 2.7−2.6=0.1 percentage point. It is below the previous reading by 2.7−2.8=−0.1 percentage point. Those statements can both be true. Calling the release simply “higher” loses the comparison base. The first difference is not a 0.1% relative increase; percentage points measure subtraction between the stated percentage rates. These calculations describe the supplied data, not a prediction of a currency’s direction.
Convert the time using the offset actually in force
For this manual exercise, first assume UTC +1: 13:00 UTC is 14:00 local time. Now use UTC +2 for the same event: the local time is 15:00. The event has not moved an hour; the display offset changed. No real daylight-saving date is assumed here. For actual events, confirm the source timezone, date and local offset rather than transferring a remembered clock time. Keep the UTC event identity with any exported note so two displays can be reconciled.
Keep interpretation separate from permission to enter
The sheet’s schedule and the surprise calculation do not establish liquidity, execution or a valid order. Apply your own documented event and account conditions separately. If a necessary source is unavailable, mark the fact as unresolved. Preserve the pre-release expectation, actual publication and later revisions as distinct versions. A later price move cannot retrospectively change the saved comparison. Revisit the full macro lessons for mechanisms and uncertainty; the exercise’s result is a correctly labelled release record, with no claimed trading edge.
Three exercises with explanations
1. How does the reading differ from the saved consensus?
Actual 2.7%; pre-release consensus 2.6%.
Show the answer and explanation
C. Name the comparison and unit together.
- A. That reverses the comparison.
- B. Subtraction of percentage rates gives percentage points.
- C. The difference is 2.7−2.6=0.1 percentage point.
- D. The supplied rates differ.
2. Can the reading exceed consensus while falling from the previous value?
Actual 2.7%, consensus 2.6%, previous 2.8%.
Show the answer and explanation
A. Preserve both comparisons without turning either into a guaranteed market response.
- A. The two statements have different comparison bases.
- B. Independent comparisons can have different signs.
- C. The previous observation answers another relevant question.
- D. No price-outcome model is supplied.
3. What local display matches 13:00 UTC at UTC +2?
Only the display offset changes; the event is unchanged.
Show the answer and explanation
D. Check date and timezone in real use; this case supplies fixed offsets only.
- A. That retains UTC rather than local display time.
- B. That uses the earlier one-hour offset.
- C. That adds an unsupported extra hour.
- D. Adding the stated two-hour offset gives 15:00.
